Medistorm Bessie

Note, this page will become unavailable after the event has occurred. A summary of the 2015 season is at: 

http://quantumoverlord.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/medicane-season-2015-to-be-updated.html

15:07 21st October

There is potential for medicane development over the next few days

(Visible satellite of the region of interest; sat24.com)

A large scale trough moving eastward over the Mediterranean is expected to interact with an upper level cold pool as the system approaches Sicily or the southern part of mainland Italy. There are two scenarios suggested by the high resolution models where a warm cored tropical like system could either form in either the Tyrannian sea (west of the mainland) or alternatively in the Ionian sea which would likely be a threat for Albania or perhaps Greece. There is also a negligible possibility of development in both regions, although I am unaware of any record of two medicines coexisting concurrently.

(Possible tracks of the trough, with red arrows indicating tracks as a tropical-like system, these two possible paths represent the most likely development avenues with the orange areas the most likely places to be directly affected should a medicane develop)

17:24 22nd October

I think there is enough evidence to classify this system as a medi-storm (albeit potentially briefly). At roughly 12pm today a clear eye was visible, although it quickly diminished after interacting with the Albanian coastline. As it is, the system still resides in the Adriatic with maximum sustained windspeeds of about 30mph (below medicane threshold). The UKMO model suggests that a warm core has at the very least started to develop although the GFS does not concur (however given the size of the storm this is perhaps understandable). The location of the storm is a little dubious; the adriatic is a rather narrow stretch of water; indeed the outer rain bands penetrate well into Albania, Greece and Itally. Nevertheless, as long as the centre of the storm is over water, in theory it can develop (note the Lake Huron 'hurricane' which managed it in far more claustrophobic conditions) and the southern Adriatic is relatively deep water which does help.

(The eye visible just off the coast of Albania at around 12pm; courtesy of sat24.com)

Bessie is now moving slowly west on course for Italy and lies in the mediteranian, however does not appear to have recovered from its earlier encounter with Albania. The system is currently disorganized and its status even as a medistorm is very much borderline.